Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.535496 2.961313 3.433563 3.995725 4.646306 5.375170 6.253363
2025-12-21 1.841575 2.401037 3.088928 3.995070 5.155493 6.589903 8.495950
2025-12-28 1.534695 2.188972 3.063798 4.314496 6.051818 8.374528 11.710192
2026-01-04 1.255515 1.933331 2.906543 4.397654 6.615507 9.781674 14.632461
2026-01-11 1.054476 1.736285 2.777956 4.472889 7.147383 11.187096 17.729089
2026-01-18 0.890960 1.558330 2.636437 4.487685 7.566849 12.456734 20.773801
2026-01-25 0.755218 1.396309 2.486326 4.452455 7.883426 13.585403 23.724099
2026-02-01 0.612561 1.194032 2.231904 4.193308 7.774572 13.986308 25.501237
2026-02-08 0.515456 1.055497 2.063966 4.053986 7.842773 14.678486 27.844665
2026-02-15 0.449368 0.963576 1.965160 4.022748 8.095318 15.715819 30.921762
2026-02-22 0.414499 0.927487 1.966310 4.180888 8.723178 17.510853 35.621048
2026-03-01 0.366138 0.854414 1.881747 4.152879 8.976515 18.617410 39.120996
2026-03-08 0.321398 0.783384 1.794633 4.115651 9.225439 19.785527 42.979856
2026-03-15 0.285418 0.726070 1.728747 4.116037 9.558948 21.179259 47.513590
2026-03-22 0.276746 0.731917 1.804713 4.445177 10.658681 24.318596 56.158852
2026-03-29 0.252828 0.695661 1.777357 4.530899 11.221088 26.370431 62.698298
2026-04-05 0.231261 0.661265 1.748663 4.608380 11.774385 28.469998 69.612558
2026-04-12 0.209037 0.620805 1.698186 4.623624 12.179315 30.279642 76.086309
2026-04-19 0.187154 0.576990 1.631796 4.587369 12.450539 31.807444 82.083831
2026-04-26 0.158492 0.507954 1.486948 4.320635 12.093486 31.771700 84.265354
2026-05-03 0.138492 0.460578 1.393206 4.177227 12.038181 32.473613 88.378295
2026-05-10 0.124867 0.430109 1.342091 4.145072 12.278869 33.957889 94.687274
2026-05-17 0.118868 0.422852 1.357514 4.307852 13.085454 37.018213 105.522131